مجلة الإستراتيجية والتنمية
Volume 14, Numéro 1, Pages 123-140
2024-01-21
Empirical Analysis Of The Influence Of Financial System Mechanisms On Algeria's Economic Trajectory (2000-2022): Implications For Future Economic Policies Using The Arch And Garch Models
Authors : Bouyacoub Brahim .
Abstract
The fundamental objective of this study is to conduct an in-depth analysis to comprehend how the mechanisms of the financial system in Algeria have exerted their influence on the country's economic trajectory from 2000 to 2022, and how these observations can guide the formulation of future economic policies focused on stimulating growth and development. To achieve this purpose, we have employed empirical modeling methods, particularly ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity). The results derived from our comprehensive econometric analysis reveal that variables related to the financial system, such as the credit-to-GDP ratio, the number of bank branches, and the real interest rate, play a significant role in explaining the variation in economic growth in Algeria. This finding underscores the crucial importance of these financial factors within the country's economic context.
Keywords
the financial system ; economic policies ; ARCH and GARCH ; credit-to-GDP ; the number of bank branches
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