مجلة الإستراتيجية والتنمية
Volume 13, Numéro 1, Pages 353-368
2023-01-01

Applied A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model To Analyse Fiscal Viability Case Study Of Japan



Authors : Semouk Nawel .

Abstract

This article aims to studies the fiscal viability of Japan by applying a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to the Japanese economy by introducing intermediation costs into the model. We have explaining the observed relationship between the interest and GDP growth rates, which is crucial in testing for viability. We conclude that when the projected real growth rate is 2.8%, the average real interest rate becomes 2.68%, and the debt to GDP ratio gradually increases stochastically so that government debt is not sustainable. To recover viability, the primary surplus must be 0.3% of GDP.

Keywords

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) ; Japan ; Viability ; Fiscal viability ; Fiscal policy

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