مجلة الإستراتيجية والتنمية
Volume 9, Numéro 1, Pages 201-233
2019-01-23
The Effect Of External Oil Price Shocks On The Algerian Economy In The Light Of Trade Openness Simulation Using The Computable General Equilibrium Model
Authors : Semouk Nawel . Touitou Mohammed .
Abstract
This article aims to describe the effect of external oil price shocks on some variables of the Algerian economy such as local production, trade (import, export) by using the computable general equilibrium model. The basic data of the model is the table of inputs and outputs of Algeria in 2013, which was identified by the social accounting matrix created by using national accounts data. We have therefore tried to determine how the world price of oil affects the Algerian economy open to the shocks of trade liberalization, where we used a simulation of policy for the trade openness of the economy, which is the increase of 10% and the 30% drop in the price of oil. The results of the study show that the tax revenues generated by the 10% increase in global oil prices were a reason to rely on the hydrocarbon sector and continued to depend on it instead of encouraging others sectors to be produced, such as the agricultural sector. On the other hand, the tax revenues generated by the 30% fall in the price of oil led to a fall in the level of production and value-added in most sectors except in some sectors such as agriculture
Keywords
Trade openness, Algeria, Oil price, Simulation, Computable general equilibrium model
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