مجلة الباحث
Volume 20, Numéro 1, Pages 17-26

Global Stochastic Approach Of Energy Markets Dynamic: Modeling Future Opec-plus Stackelberg Market Structure 2020-2030

Authors : Sadallah Daoud .

Abstract

Summary: Through this research we attempt to determine and analyze future OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market structure transformation, from fractional equilibrium where the organization of petroleum exporting countries behave as an arbitrageur player, to the status where OPEC-Plus act as compatible in a Stackelberg crude oil market conditions. Also we provided accurate evidence for the next 2020-2030 global energy market structure that should ignore suppliers’ decision-making intentions and the potential of cheating in production quotas by OPEC-Plus member states. We used global dynamic stochastic optimization model (GDSOM) to test the sensitivity of future OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market behavior due to demand elasticity rating of full market competition conditions, oligopoly and dynamic stochastic market conditions. Empirical results show that future OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market doesn’t presents synergy in dynamic stochastic crude market conditions, which doesn’t comply with the main research assumption.

Keywords

Oil arbitrageurs ; OPEC-Plus ; Stackelberg market ; Cartel ; Oil market