المجلة المغاربية للإقتصاد و المانجمت
Volume 2, Numéro 1, Pages 41-53

امكانية قيام اتحاد نقدي بين دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي

الكاتب : بن يوب لطيفة . بزاوية محمد .

الملخص

The objective of This study is to investigate the possibility of Monetary Union among the four GCC countries namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar basing on the shocks’ nature, where it is found that if there are similar shocks among these countries, there is a possibility of a monetary union among them, and thus, this union will support their fixed exchange rate regimes. To do so, we will apply a SVAR model during the period 1981-2012 and we will use three variables: Real Gross Domestic Product that represents supply shock, Real Exchange Rate that represents demand shock and consumer price index that represents monetary shock. Our empirical results show that all shocks are symmetric, and also, there is a similarity in the contribution of each shock in the real GDP of the GCC countries, with some differences among them in the long and medium terms. All these results confirm the possibility of a monetary integration or common currency among the GCC countries

الكلمات المفتاحية

Monetary Union, The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Optimum Currency Area, SVAR.