social and human sciences review مجلة العلوم الاجتماعية والانسانية
Volume 12, Numéro 25, Pages 127-154
2011-12-01
ﺗﺄﺛﯾر اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺔ اﻻﺋﺗﻣﺎﻧﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺑﻧوك اﻟﺗﺟﺎرﯾﺔ اﻟﺟزاﺋرﯾﺔ (2009 -1989) دراﺳﺔ ﻗﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺗرة
الكاتب : ﻣﺣـﻣــد ﻋﺑــﺎدي .
الملخص
ﻫدﻓت اﻟدراﺳﺔ إﻟﻰ اﺧﺗﺑﺎر ﻫدﻓت اﻟدراﺳﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﺣدﯾـد ﻣـدى ﺗـﺄﺛﯾر ﻛـل ﻣـن ﺣﺟـم اﻟوداﺋـﻊ، ﺳـﻌر اﻟﻔﺎﺋــدة اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘــﻲ، ﻋــدد اﻟﺳــﻛﺎن، واﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳــﺔ اﻻﺋﺗﻣﺎﻧﯾــﺔ ﻟﻠﺑﻧــوك اﻟﺗﺟﺎرﯾــﺔ اﻟﺟزاﺋرﯾــﺔ ﻣﻣﺛﻠــﺔ ﺑﺣﺟــم اﻟﺗﺳــﻬﯾﻼت .ﻗﺎﻣــت 2009 إﻟــﻰ 1989اﻻﺋﺗﻣﺎﻧﯾــﺔ اﻟﻣﻣﻧوﺣــﺔ ﻣــن ﻗﺑﻠﻬــﺎ، ﺑﺎﺳــﺗﺧدام ﺑﯾﺎﻧــﺎت ﺳــﻧوﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺗــرة اﻟﻣﻣﺗــدة ﻣــن اﻟدراﺳـﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺗﺑــﺎر إﺳـﺗﻘرارﯾﺔ ﻣﻌــﺎﻟم اﻟﻧﻣـوذج واﺧﺗﺑــﺎر ﺳـﻛون اﻟﺳﻼﺳــل اﻟزﻣﻧﯾـﺔ ﺑﺗطﺑﯾــق اﺧﺗﺑـﺎر دﯾﻛــﻲ ﻓــوﻟر اﻟﻣوﺳّﻊ، وﺗﺣدﯾد ﻓﺗرات اﻟﺗﺑﺎطؤ اﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺗﺣﻠﯾل اﻟﻘﯾﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻧﻣوذج .وﻣن ﺛم اﺧﺗﺑﺎر اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ طوﯾﻠﺔ اﻷﺟل ﺑﯾن اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات ﺑطرﯾﻘﺔ ﺟوﻫﺎﻧﺳن ﻟﻠﺗﻛﺎﻣل اﻟﻣﺷﺗرك وﻧﻣوذج ﻣﺗﺟﻪ ﺗﺻﺣﯾﺢ اﻟﺧطﺄ. أظﻬــرت ﻧﺗــﺎﺋﺞ اﺧﺗﺑــﺎر اﻟﺗﻛﺎﻣــل اﻟﻣﺷــﺗرك وﺟــود ﺗﻛﺎﻣــل ﻣﺷــﺗرك ﺑــﯾن ﺣﺟــم اﻟﺗﺳــﻬﯾﻼت اﻻﺋﺗﻣﺎﻧﯾــﺔ وﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟدراﺳﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ .ﻛﻣﺎ ﺗﺑﯾن أن ﺗﺄﺛﯾر ﺣﺟم اﻟوداﺋﻊ ﻛﺎن ﺳﻠﺑﯾﺎ وﺑدﻻﻟﺔ اﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳـﺔ اﻻﺋﺗﻣﺎﻧﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺑﻧوك ﻓﻲ ﺣﯾن ﻛﺎن ﺗﺄﺛﯾر ﻛل ﻣن ﺳﻌر اﻟﻔﺎﺋدة اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻹﻗراض وﺣﺟم اﻟﺳـﻛﺎن إﯾﺟﺎﺑﯾـﺎ وﻣﻌﻧوﯾـــﺎ . اﺧﺗﺑـــﺎر ﻣﺗﺟـــﻪ ﺗﺻـــﺣﯾﺢ اﻟﺧطـــﺄ ﻋﻠـــﻰ ﻋـــدم وﺟـــود ﻋﻼﻗـــﺔ ﺳـــﺑﺑﯾﺔ طوﯾﻠـــﺔ اﻷﺟـــل ﺑـــﯾن و ﻗـــد دل اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ واﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر اﻟﺗﺎﺑﻊ، ﺣﯾث ﻛﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣل ﺣد اﻟﺧطﺄ ﺳﺎﻟب وﻏﯾر ﻣﻌﻧوي إﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺎً . the extent of the impact of size of deposits, the real interest rate, population on the credit policy of commercial banks of Algeria represented by the size of credit facilities. The study Used annual data for the period from 1989 to 2009. For Analysis Purposes, The study tested the stationary of time series applying Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Stability test for the model, lag length selection test, Johansen's Co-Integration test, vector error correction model. The Co-integration test suggested that there is a common integration between the independent variables and Credit Facilities, where The study find a negative statistically significant influence of Deposits on the credit policy, while the effect of the real interest rate and the population is positive with statistically significant. The vector error correction model indicated that there isn't a causal long-run relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable, where the error correction term was negative and statistically insignificant.
الكلمات المفتاحية
اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ . اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺔ اﻻﺋﺗﻣﺎﻧﯾﺔ. اﻠﺑﻧوك اﻟﺗﺟﺎرﯾﺔ اﻟﺟزاﺋرﯾﺔ . the credit policy of commercial banks .
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