Revue de l'Algerian Petroleum Institute
Volume 2, Numéro 1, Pages 37-51
2008-01-15
Forecasting Fuel Demand In India Transportation Sector Using Pooled Cross Section Time Series Approach For Modeling Car Ownership
Authors : Bouachera Taoufik . Mazraati Dr Mohammad .
Abstract
Motorization in Asia is soaring in step with rapid growth in incomes. Even though the car population is still low in countries like China, India, or Indonesia, escalating number of vehicles is following GDP growth. This quick growth in car ownership may represent a significant implication on road transport fuel demand. This paper forecasts the demand for transport fuel in India. For this purpose, econometric models based on time series data are generated for specific factor affecting demand: car ownership. So, firstly the econometric car ownership model was attempted in this study for projecting future car stock in India based on cross section time series technique. The car stock is modeled by using three models, which are the logistic, quasi-logistic and Gompertz curves. However, due to the size of India car fleet, these models were modeled by using pooled data of seven Asian countries (Japan, China, S. Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India). Then, a set of fuel consumption scenarios were developed in order to make forecast until 2030. These scenarios were generated by taking into consideration car stock, fuel efficiency and the average distance traveled in India.
Keywords
transport fuel modeling, car stock projections, Gompertz function, and quasi-logistic function.
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