مجلة اقتصاديات شمال افريقيا
Volume 12, Numéro 15, Pages 103-118

اختبار منحنى جي للتجارة الخارجية في الجزائر دراسة قياسية من 1980 إلى 2015

الكاتب : كمال سي محمد .

الملخص

The goal of this study is to examine J curve that used to describe the short-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance through an ARDL Framework during the period 1980- 12015. Our result validates Marshall-Lerner condition and J-Curve effect for Algerian trade in long run. This result produces spurious J effect when oil exports may simply constitute the dominant income of the Algerian economy implying distortions in most other sectors Moreover, the estimated long-run ARDL model rejects the validity of Marshall-Lerner condition for Non-hydrocarbon trade balance while price elasticity is very week 0.07. The depreciation of Algerian exchange rate is not expected to trade balance improvement

الكلمات المفتاحية

J-curve, Terms of trade, trade balance