مجلة الباحث
Volume 19, Numéro 1, Pages 563-576

The Effect Of Terms Of Trade On Economic Growth In Maghreb Countries: Harberger-laursen-metzler Effect For The Period 1990-2017.

Authors : Hicham Ayad . Mostéfa Belmokaddem .

Abstract

This study investigates the direct impact of terms of trade on economic growth in Maghreb countries from 1990 to 2017, so as to be able to test the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect, using various econometric techniques for panel data analysis as the modern unit root test PSCADF (2006), the Pedroni and Kao tests for co-integration in addition to Westerlund (2007, 2008) test with bootstrap technique, and finally the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) non-causality test, the results shows that there is no evidence of any co-integration relationship between the variables, and there is a small effect from the TOT to economic growth whereas any increase in the TOT index by 10% causes an increase in GDP by 0.217% vice versa, the results also shows that there is no evidence of any causality from terms of trade to economic growth in contrast of a uni-directional causality running from terms of trade to trade openness, and for the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect (HLM effect) the results reveals a weak effect with economic growth and trade openness.

Keywords

Terms of Trade ; HLM effect ; Co-Integration ; Causality